That's right, it's Oscar season again. All the pageantry, all the pomp, all the sycophantic compliments and obviously rehearsed "off-the-cuff" acceptance speeches. All the inane Hollywood chatter and sub-sincere "you deserve it"s. An orgy of self-congratulatory celebration for the rich and famous.
So, I thought to myself, why not join in?
The list of nominated actors, actresses, and films was released last week on the official site (http://www.oscars.com/nominees/), and I've poured over them to bring you my choices for Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Film, and so on and so forth.
But that's not all! I've also done thorough research into the last 10 years of Academy Award winners to find the common patterns inherent in each category. Now, instead of only stating who we'd like to win, we can actually predict who will ACTUALLY walk away with the little golden statue at the end of the night.
Does it work? I guess we'll have to wait and see.
The Academy Award Nominations for 2008:
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Who SHOULD win:
Daniel Day-Lewis. He's no stranger to Oscar-worthy roles and is known for throwing himself into his
roles. His character in There Will Be Blood is complex and fascinating to watch, the sign of a true actor.
Who WILL (probably) win:
The Academy loves a man in power or a celebrity biopic. Since we have neither this year, George Clooney
is getting the most buzz, which leads me to believe it will limp away with the win.
George Clooney
Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis
There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones
In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen
Eastern Promises
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Who SHOULD win:
Javier Bardem. If you've seen No Country for Old Men, then you know why. Bardem brings to life
the quirkiest, scariest, funniest, most frightening antagonist in easily the last five years.
Who WILL (probably) win:
Javier Bardem. Seriously, go see the movie.
Casey Affleck
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem
No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook
Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson
Michael Clayton
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Who SHOULD win:
Ellen Page. Because Juno was by far the best picture I've seen this year, and it all hinges
on the tiny Page in a role far beyond her character's years. Also, because I'm personally championing this movie
this year.
Who WILL (probably) win:
The Academy usually goes with a historic figure, or a woman outside her typical gender role. Cate Blanchett
will probably score big on this one, with her role as Britain's 3rd homeliest queen (2nd homeliest is Elton John).
Cate Blanchett
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie
Away From Her
Marion Cotillard
La Vie En Rose
Laura Linney
The Savages
Ellen Page
Juno
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Who SHOULD win:
Amy Ryan. Don't let the fact that Ben Affleck wrote and directed this turn you off. It's surprisingly powerful
and well performed.
Who WILL (probably) win:
After the many accusations of racism, the Oscars vehemently try to deny it by giving an award to any African-American nominated,
which led to Halle Berry winning an Oscar (that's right, Halle "Swordfish-boobs" Berry has won an oscar).
As much as I hate to say it, as the Oscars token black person this year, Ruby Dee looks like the smart call. I hope they prove me wrong.
Cate Blanchett
I'm Not There
Ruby Dee
American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan
Atonement
Amy Ryan
Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton
Michael Clayton
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Who SHOULD win:
Ratatouille. Brad Bird should win based on principle alone.
Who WILL (probably) win:
Ratatouille. Mainly because Persepolis was boring, and Surf's Up made me want to gouge my own eyes out in disgust.
Persepolis
Ratatouille
Surf's Up
ART DIRECTION
Who SHOULD win:
The Golden Compass. The contrasting styles and architecture of the two seperate worlds is a visual feat to behold.
Who WILL (probably) win:
There Will Be Blood. The Academy seems to veer towards unusual locations, but might overlook The Golden Compass due to the supposed "anti-christian" overtones.
I'd say Sweeney Todd, but the Academy tends to avoid "dark" films for this category.
American Gangster
Atonement
The Golden Compass
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
There Will Be Blood
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Who SHOULD win:
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. Janusz Kaminski is a genius. Need proof? Watch Saving Private Ryan again.
Who WILL (probably) win:
Unfortunately, it seems like the Academy doesn't know the difference between art direction and cinematography (as history shows).
Whoever wins the art direction award usually wins the cinematography award by default.
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
COSTUME DESIGN
Who SHOULD win:
Sweeney Todd. It's a period piece, but with a vicious streak of style that the Academy may not reward.
Who WILL (probably) win:
In the past, the award usually locks in with the art direction and cinematography awards, defaulting to
whatever "period piece" is out that year if the formerly mentioned movie happens to miss the nomination.
By that reasoning, Elizabeth:The Golden Age looks like the shoo-in to win.
Across the Universe
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
La Vie En Rose
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
DIRECTING
Who SHOULD win:
No Country for Old Men. It's a Coen movie. 'Nuff said.
Who WILL (probably) win:
Put simply: a drama. That's just the way the Academy rolls. More specifically, they tend to be "heavy-hitting" modern day stories,
which would put Michael Clayton in fair running for the coveted award.
Julian Schnabel
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Jason Reitman
Juno
Tony Gilroy
Michael Clayton
Ethan & Joel Coen
No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson
There Will Be Blood
BEST PICTURE
Who SHOULD win:
Juno. Beautiful, poignant, witty, sophisticated, heart-warming. It's got the goods.
Who WILL (probably) win:
In yet another example of duality between awards, whatever movie wins the Best Direction Oscar usually goes on
to win the Best Picture Oscar. It's usually a modern-day drama, so both Michael Clayton and No Country for Old Men
have a shot.
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
VISUAL EFFECTS
Who SHOULD win:
None.The Golden Compass was well executed but unoriginal, Pirates was well designed but poorly executed,
and Transformers was poorly designed but well executed.
Who WILL (probably) win:
I dunno. Transformers? Maybe robots beat pirates and polar bears.
The Golden Compass
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Transformers
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Who SHOULD win:
Diablo Cody for Juno. Watching this movie made me want to read everything she's ever written. That, my friends,
is talent.
Who WILL (probably) win:
Strangely enough, Diablo Cody for Juno. The Academy tends to veer towards unusual or quirky material when voting
for an original screenplay, and harder hitting material for the adapted screenplays (which I'm not commenting on, because
they are just editing someone elses story, which feels like cheating to me). Lars and the Real Girl also fills this
category, but I have a strong feeling the Academy will go with the more socio-political of the two.
Diablo Cody
Juno
Nancy Oliver
Lars and the Real Girl
Tony Gilroy
Michael Clayton
Brad Bird, Jim Capobianco, Emily Cook, Kathy Greenberg, Bob Peterson, and Jan Pinkava
Ratatouille
Tamara Jenkins
The Savages
So there you go: my in-depth analysis of the upcoming 80th Academy Awards. Check back on Monday, February 25th for a review of the winners.
Agree with my choices? Want to slap some sense into me? Post a comment below and let us know!
That's right, it's Oscar season again. All the pageantry, all the pomp, all the sycophantic compliments and obviously rehearsed "off-the-cuff" acceptance speeches. All the inane Hollywood chatter and sub-sincere "you deserve it"s. An orgy of self-congratulatory celebration for the rich and famous.
