Nice post pete, I've been meaning to weigh in with my Lost theory but i've been very busy of late so I'll have to do that when I get some spare time and also after i've re-read your universe imploding mind-fuck of a theory again.

I'm in agreement with most of these (Juno....what can i say) but a) how could you not pick No Country for best cinematography - that was stunningly well shot - almost beats Road to Perdition for my mind, b) Blanchette for best supp actress - not because I'm patriotic but she honestly sold me as Dylan even after I had convinced myself it couldn't be done and c) I know you hate it but c'mon Transformers is hands down the best VFX lighting, compositing and animation to date for a live action film. period. Childhood detroyed by Michael Bayhem or not.

I guess only time will tell if ALL your theories are as accurate as your Lost and Heroes ones are.

Oh and kudos for the FF > IE banner (It appeers in my RSS reader). Has a web designer it's something i've always wanted to include on every site I make and I'm glad somebody did.

Thanks, Tron! I really liked the cinematography in No Country for Old Men, and if Diving Bell wasn't up there it would be my choice hands down. Cate Blanchett was great, but when is she not? I just felt that Amy Ryan had the greatest accomplishment of the selections: you really, really, really hate her character at the end of the movie, but it's completely unintentional. She does a great job of playing the worst mother in history. And, well... I think I've made it known where I stand on the Transformers. It was excellently executed and the CGI was top-notch... it just wasn't designed very well.

As a funny sidenote, I almost thought about closing the site off from IE users completely so that I wouldn't have to code everything twice, but decided the extra effort was worth being cross-browser compatible. Supposedly, IE 8 is standards-compliant, but we'll see on that.

Very good post. Nicely organized and good summaries. I heard this morning on the radio the Oscars may not even go. Would they have a news broadcast format like with the Golden Globes? What are your thoughts on the Golden Globes while we're at it? Anyhow, I am intrigued by many of your comments. I've yet to see Juno, but I *love* Ellen Page - in a nice way - and I am looking forward to seeing it. I also have to see "No Country..."

Tom - From everything I've heard and read, the Academy Awards is actually one of the main reasons the WGA and AMPTP are again aggressively pursuing a resolution to the strike. Neither side wants a repeat of the Golden Globes.

Honestly, I think they should put on the Oscars without writers. Do you know who writes all those lame, poorly conceived, hacky jokes that the celebs spit out with the bare minimum of enthusiasm?

This guy:
http://i1.tinypic.com/mwuq2h.jpg

They should get a real comedian to host it, and let him make the jokes and leave it at that. Sure, you won't get to see Rhianna chumming around with Luke Wilson like they're best friends at a slumber party, but c'mon. Does anyone actually believe that all these celebrities and stars really get along that well? They don't.

I also love Ellen Page, but not in the nice way. Haha!

I agree with almost all of your picks but I believe There Will Be Blood shall win Best Picture. The Academy has almost always ignored comedies in this category (I was pleasantly surprised that Juno got a nod) and Michael Clayton didn't have the buzz the Academy likes around a Best Picture pick.

No Country For Old Men is my personal pick for Best Picture of the year and probably stands the best chance of upsetting my prediction. Look for this film (NCFOM) to win for Best Adapted Screenplay as well.

Manzy704- thanks for the comment! I really liked There Will Be Blood as well (hence my choice for Lewis in the Best Actor category). I chose Juno because I'd really like to see it win, and the "who will probably win" prediction was based on the last 10 years worth of winners, which ended up being predominately based in the late 20th century and/or British in origin (the exceptions were Gladiator in 2000, and Chicago in 2002).

And if I had reviewed the adapted screenplay category, NCFOM would have gotten my pick, hands down.

Nice post. However, disagreed on most of your who will win picks. There's a formula that's been pretty accurate for picking Oscar winners. I lay it all out here:

http://cinemoose.com/guide-to-handicapping-the-oscars/

Cinemoose - that's an excellent read, and does bring up some good points. Glad to see a fellow screenwriter's opinion!

Some great points, but I disagree with nearly every one of your who will win choices. My choices for winners include:

Best Picture: No Country for Old Men (saw this one this week, definately deserving)
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Actress: Julie Christie
Best Supp. Actor: Javier Bardem
Best Supp. Actress: Amy Ryan
Best Directing: Joel & Ethan Coen
Best Animated Film: Ratatouille (a personal favorite)
Cinematography: There Will Be Blood
Original Screenplay: Juno
Adapted Screenplay: No Country for Old Men
Costume Design: Atonement
Visual Effects: Transformers

That's OK, Nick - I disagree with most of the "who will win"s as well, they're just based on previous winners in the category. Statistics are hardly ever accurate anyway, especially when it involves a voting process.

You've got some great picks there (most are the same as my personal picks - the "who should win"s), and I would love to see the Coens take home an Oscar, I'm just worried that the Academy will snub them this year.